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Paused. We're not even going to pretend to know what happens next, but for those of you in BTD mode this past week, nice trade.
Markets are screaming higher after Trump took to X announcing a 90-day pause and substantially lowered reciprocal tariffs of 10% during this period, while increasing the tariff rate charged to China to 125%.
Given the immense negative pressure on markets over the past week, this announcement resulted in a monster move higher across the board. Stocks up, crypto up, short-term euphoria. For now, it feels good, though I suspect the recent volatility we've become accustomed to will linger.
Aside from some short-term relief from this self-inflicted volatility, not much has changed on the economic front relative to what we've been highlighting since February.
Strap in.
Performance dashboard and updated expected moves are below.
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